🔗 Share this article Moving from Grudging Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro. A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”
A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”